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Why Nobody Believes the Numbers


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Table of Contents

Introduction xiii Chapter 1 Actuaries Behaving Badly 1 Chapter 2 Plausibility Testing: How to Measure Outcomes Using Ingredients You Already Have in Your Kitchen 35 Chapter 3 Case Studies That Flunk Every Plausibility Test Known to Mankind 53 Chapter 4 Case Studies That Flunk Every Plausibility Test Known to Mankind and Then Some 73 Chapter 5 Case Studies of Where, When, and How Wellness Programs Have Actually Worked 125 Chapter 6 Yes, Virginia, There Is a Savings Clause 141 Chapter 7 Disease Management Programs That Actually Work (Pinch Me) 151 Chapter 8 Contracting/RFP Checklist of Do?s and Don?ts (Mostly Don?ts) 175 Appendix: The Keys to the Numerical Kingdom 193 Author?s Note on Sources 195 Notes 197 Glossary 201 About the Author 207 Bibliography and Further Reading 209 Acknowledgments 211

About the Author

AL LEWIS , President of the Disease Management Purchasing Consortium, is widely credited with inventing disease management and was named "the national leader in analyzing care management outcomes" in the 9th Annual Report on the Disease Management and Wellness Industries . He provides procurement and outcomes consulting to health plans and human resources/benefits departments, and administers the industry certification program in Critical Outcomes Report Analysis. He holds undergraduate and graduate degrees from Harvard.


"It's rare that a book about mathematics is funny. And this is not just any math: It's population health analysis. This is the stuff that employers, benefit managers, CFOs and many others want to know: how to figure out if an intervention "worked" and reduced costs."--Employee Benefit News "Do yourself a favor and buy this book. And, keep it handy the next time you entertain a DM/wellness proposal or examine data submitted to you by your vendor. You will never read those proposals or reports the same way again"--Khanna on Health "Digital Health Book of the Year"--Forbes

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