A ground-breaking new work on improving our ability to predict future events.
Philip Tetlock is Leonore Annenberg University Professor of Psychology at the University of Pennsylvania. He is the author of several books on politics and psychology, including Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics and the award-winning Expert Political Judgment- How Good Is It? How Can We Know? Dan Gardner is a journalist, author and lecturer. He is the best-selling author of Future Babble- Why Expert Predictions Fail and Why We Believe them Anyway and Risk- The Science and Politics of Fear, which was published in 11 countries and 7 languages. He lives in Ottawa, Canada.
The techniques and habits of mind set out in this book are a gift
to anyone who has to think about what the future might bring. In
other words, to everyone. * Economist *
A terrific piece of work that deserves to be widely read . . .
Highly recommended. * Independent *
This marvelous book tells an exciting story of ordinary people
beating experts in a very serious game. It is also a manual for
thinking clearly in an uncertain world. Read it. -- Daniel
Kahneman
Full of excellent advice - it is the best thing I have read on
predictions . . . Superforecasting is an indispensable guide
to this indispensable activity. * The Times *
Philip Tetlock has transformed the science of prediction. *
Spectator *
The most important book on decision making since Daniel Kahneman's
Thinking, Fast and Slow. * Wall Street Journal *
Fascinating and breezily written. * Sunday Times *
Superforecasting is a fascinating book. * Daily Mail *
Superforecasting is a very good book. In fact it is
essential reading. * Management Today *
The best way to know if an idea is right is to see if it predicts
the future. But which ideas, which methods, which people have a
track record of non-obvious predictions vindicated by the course of
events? The answers will surprise you, and they have radical
implications for politics, policy, journalism, education, and even
epistemology - how we can best gain knowledge about the world. The
casual style of Superforecasting belies the profundity of
its message. -- Steven Pinker
Superforecasting is a rare book that will make you smarter
and wiser. One of the giants of behavioral science reveals how to
improve at predicting the future. -- Adam Grant
The material in Superforecasting is new, and includes a
compendium of best practices for prediction . . . [It offers] us
all an opportunity to understand and react more intelligently to
the confusing world around us. * New York Times Book Review *
Tetlock's 'Ten Commandments For Aspiring Superforecasters' should
probably have a place of honor in most business meeting rooms. *
Forbes *
There isn't a social scientist in the world I admire more than Phil
Tetlock. -- Tim Harford
Superforecasting is the most important scientific study I've
ever read on prediction. * Bloomberg View *
A fascinating study of what it is that makes some forecasters
consistently better than others. * International Politico *
Tetlock's work is fascinating and important, and he and Gardner
have written it up with verve. - Financial Times -- Stephen
Cave
Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner, is one
of the most interesting business and finance books published in
2015. -- John Kay * Financial Times *
The lessons of superforecasting are keenly relevant to huge swathes
of our lives. -- Matthew Syed * The Times *
Tetlock writes boldly about wanting to improve what he sees as the
bloated, expensive - and not terribly accurate - intelligence
apparatus that advises our politicians and drives global affairs. *
City A.M. *
Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting is a common-sense guide to
thinking about decision-making and the future by a man who knows
this terrain like no one else. -- Books of the Year * Bloomberg
Business *
Tetlock and Gardner believe anyone can improve their forecasting
ability by learning from the way they work. If that's true, people
in business and finance who make an effort to do so have a lot to
gain - and those who don't, much to lose. * Financial Post *
What I found most interesting was the continuous process of
integrating new information to test and modify existing beliefs ...
clearly a beneficial skill in financial markets * Citywire *
Social science has enormous potential, especially when it combines
'rigorous empiricism with a resistance to absolute answers.' The
work of Philip Tetlock possesses these qualities. * Scientific
American *
A fascinating book. * PR Week *
Offers a valuable insight into the future of management. -- CMI
Management Book of the Year judges
Both rigorous and readable. The lessons are directly relevant to
business, finance, government, and politics. -- Books of the Year *
Bloomberg Business *
A scientific analysis of the ancient art of divination which shows
that forecasting is a talent. -- Books of the Year * Economist
*
Captivating . . . [Tetlock's] writing is so engaging and his
argument so tantalizing, readers will quickly be drawn into the
challenge . . . A must-read field guide for the intellectually
curious. * Kirkus Reviews *
A top choice [for best book of 2015] among the world's biggest
names in finance and economics . . . Eurasia Group founder Ian
Bremmer, Deutsche Bank Chief U.S. Economist Joe LaVorgna, and
Citigroup Vice Chairman Peter Orszag were among those giving it a
thumbs-up. * Bloomberg Businessweek *
Just as modern medicine began when a farsighted few began to
collect data and keep track of outcomes, to trust objective
'scoring' over their own intuitions, it's time now for similar
demands to be made of the experts who lead public opinion. It's
time for evidence-based forecasting. * Washington Post *
Tetlock and his colleagues [have] found that there is such a thing
as foresight, and it's not a gift that's bestowed upon special
people, but is a skill that can be learned and developed . . . To
obtain this apparent superpower does not take a PhD or an
exceptionally high IQ; it takes a certain mindset. * Guardian *
Superforecasting is a very good book. In fact it is
essential reading - which I have never said in any of my previous
Management Today reviews . . . It should be on every manager's and
investor's reading list around the topics du jour of
decision-making, prediction and behavioural economics. -- Andrew
Wileman * Management Today *
Read Philip Tetlock's Superforecasting, instead of political
pundits who don't what they're talking about. -- Dominic
Cummings
We should indeed apply superforecasting more systematically to
government. Like systematic opinion polling, it is an aid to
decision-makers and informed debate. It is ideologically neutral,
unless you have a bias in favour of ignorance. This is all good. --
Andrew Adonis * Independent *
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