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Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis


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Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Introduction and Overview 1.1 Our Vision 1.2 Two Types of Thinking 1.3 Dealing with Bias 1.4 The Role of Structured Analytic Techniques 1.5 The Value of Team Analysis 1.6 The History of Structured Analytic Techniques 1.7 Selection of Techniques for This Book 1.8 Quick Summary of Chapters Chapter 2: Building a System 2 Taxonomy 2.1 Taxonomy of System 2 Methods 2.2 Taxonomy of Structured Analytic Techniques Chapter 3: Choosing the Right Technique 3.1 Core Techniques 3.2 Five Habits Every Analyst Should Master 3.3 One Project, Multiple Techniques 3.4 Common Errors in Selecting Techniques 3.5 Structured Technique Selection Guide Chapter 4: Decomposition and Visualization 4.1 Getting Started Checklist 4.2 AIMS (Audience, Issue, Message, Storyline) 4.3 Customer Checklist 4.4 Issue Redefinition 4.5 Chronologies and Timelines 4.6 Sorting 4.7 Ranking, Scoring, Prioritizing 4.8 Matrices 4.9 Venn Analysis 4.10 Network Analysis 4.11 Mind Maps and Concept Maps 4.12 Process Maps and Gantt Charts Chapter 5: Idea Generation 5.1 Structured Brainstorming 5.2 Virtual Brainstorming 5.3 Nominal Group Technique 5.4 Starbursting 5.5 Cross-Impact Matrix 5.6 Morphological Analysis 5.7 Quadrant Crunching (TM) Chapter 6: Scenarios and Indicators 6.1 Scenarios Analysis 6.2 Indicators 6.3 Indicators Validation Chapter 7: Hypothesis Generation and Testing 7.1 Hypothesis Generation 7.2 Diagnostic Reasoning 7.3 Analysis of Competing Hypotheses 7.4 Argument Mapping 7.5 Deception Detection Chapter 8: Assessment of Cause and Effect 8.1 Key Assumptions Check 8.2 Structured Analogies 8.3 Role Playing 8.4 Red Hat Analysis 8.5 Outside-In Thinking Chapter 9: Challenge Analysis 9.1 Premortem Analysis 9.2 Structured Self-Critique 9.3 What If? Analysis 9.4 High Impact/Low Probability Analysis 9.5 Devil's Advocacy 9.6 Red Team Analysis 9.7 Delphi Method Chapter 10: Conflict Management 10.1 Adversarial Collaboration 10.2 Structured Debate Chapter 11: Decision Support 11.1 Decision Trees 11.2 Decision Matrix 11.3 Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes 11.4 Force Field Analysis 11.5 SWOT Analysis 11.6 Impact Matrix 11.7 Complexity Manager Chapter 12: Practitioner's Guide to Collaboration 12.1 Social Networks and Analytic Teams 12.2 Dividing the Work 12.3 Common Pitfalls with Small Groups 12.4 Benefiting from Diversity 12.5 Advocacy vs. Objective Inquiry 12.6 Leadership and Training Chapter 13: Validation of Structured Analytic Techniques 13.1 Limits of Empirical Analysis 13.2 Establishing Face Validity 13.3 A Program for Empirical Validation 13.4 Recommended Research Program Chapter 14: The Future of Structured Analytic Techniques 14.1 Structuring the Data 14.2 Key Drivers 14.3 Imagining the Future: 2020

About the Author

Richards J. Heuer Jr. is best known for his book Psychology of Intelligence Analysis and for developing and then guiding automation of the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) technique. Both are being used to teach and train intelligence analysts throughout the Intelligence Community and in a growing number of academic programs on intelligence or national security. Long retired from the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), Mr. Heuer has nevertheless been associated with the Intelligence Community in various roles for more than five decades and has written extensively on personnel security, counterintelligence, deception, and intelligence analysis. He has a B.A. in philosophy from Williams College and an M.A. in international relations from the University of Southern California, and has pursued other graduate studies at the University of California at Berkeley and the University of Michigan. Randolph H. Pherson, Chief Executive Officer of Globalytica, LLC, helps businesses and governments develop robust analytic capabilities within their organizations. He has authored seven books on structured analytic techniques, critical thinking and writing skills, strategic foresight analysis, and communicating analysis in the digital age. He collaborated with Richards J. Heuer Jr. in launching the Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH) method, and they are coauthors of Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis, 2nd ed., 2015. Mr. Pherson has taught courses at the London School of Economics, Liverpool Hope University, England; the Hertie School of Governance in Berlin; Universidad Rey Juan Carlos, Madrid; and the Autonomous University of Barcelona. He developed and holds the patent for a suite of collaborative Web-based software tools, TH!NK Suite (R). Mr. Pherson is also President of Pherson Associates, LLC and a founding Director of the Forum Foundation for Analytic Excellence. In 2000, he completed a twenty-eight-year career in the Intelligence Community, most recently serving as National Intelligence Officer (NIO) for Latin America. Previously at the CIA, Mr. Pherson managed the production of intelligence analysis on topics ranging from global instability to Latin America, served on the Inspector General's staff, and developed and implemented a strategic planning process for the CIA. He is the recipient of the CIA's Distinguished Intelligence Medal for his service as NIO for Latin America and the Distinguished Career Intelligence Medal. Mr. Pherson received his AB from Dartmouth College and his MA in International Relations from Yale University.

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