Nate Silver is a statistician and political forecaster at The New York Times who became a national sensation in the United States when his predictions during the 2008 presidential election trumped most mainstream polls. He is a contributor to The New York Times Magazine and has appeared as a commentator on CNN and MSNBC. He has spoken at TED and SXSW, and was named one of TIME's 100 Most Influential People in the world.
"Nate Silver's The Signal and the Noise is The Soul of a New
Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we'd be a lot
better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse
is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate's
influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see
in the numbers--the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the
quantitative questions right. A wonderful read--totally
engrossing."
--Rachel Maddow, author of Drift
"Yogi Berra was right: 'forecasting is hard, especially about the
future.' In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the
performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we
must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares
about what might happen next."
--Richard Thaler, co-author of Nudge
"Making predictions in the era of 'big data' is not what you might
imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides
unpredictably illuminating insights differentiating objective and
subjective realities in forecasting our future. He reminds us that
the human element is still essential in predicting advances in
science, technology and even politics... if we were only wise
enough to learn from our mistakes."
-- Governor Jon Huntsman
"Here's a prediction: after you read The Signal and the Noise,
you'll have much more insight into why some models work well--and
also why many don't. You'll learn to pay more attention to weather
forecasts for the coming week--and none at all for weather
forecasts beyond that. Nate Silver takes a complex, difficult
subject and makes it fun, interesting, and relevant."
--Peter Orszag, former director of the Office of Management and
Budget
"Projection, prediction, assumption, trepidation, anticipation,
expectation, estimation... we wouldn't have 80 words like this in
the English language if it wasn't central to our lives. We tend not
to take prediction seriously becaus
"Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult
statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and
examples are painstakingly researched..."
--"Wall Street Journal"
"Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise "is The Soul of a New
Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we'd be a lot
better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse
is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate's
influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see
in the numbers--the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the
quantitative questions right. A wonderful read--totally
engrossing."
--Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift
"
"Yogi Berra was right: 'forecasting is hard, especially about the
future.' In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the
performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we
must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares
about what might happen next."
--Richard Thaler, co-author of "Nudge
"
"Making predictions in the era of 'big data' is not what you might
imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides
unpredictably illuminating insights differentiating objective and
subjective realities in forecasting our future. He reminds us that
the human element is still essential in predicting advances in
science, technology and even politics... if we were only wise
enough to learn from our mistakes."
--Governor Jon Huntsman
"Here's a prediction: after you read The Signal and the Noise,
you'll have much more insight into why some models work well--and
also why many don't. You'll learn to pay more attention to weather
forecasts for the coming week--and none at all for weather
forecasts beyond that. Nate Silver takes a complex, difficult
subject and makes it fun, interesting, and relevant."
--Peter Orszag, former director of the Office of Management and
Budget
"Projection, prediction, as
"Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics... His ambitious new
book, "The Signal and the Noise," is a practical handbook and a
philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction
through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to
professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely
valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about
the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In
other words, everyone."
--"The Boston Globe"
"Silver delivers an improbably breezy read on what is essentially a
primer on making predictions."
--"Washington Post"
"Silver explores our attempts at forecasting stocks, storms,
sports, and anything else not set in stone."
--"Wired "
"Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult
statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and
examples are painstakingly researched..."
--"Wall Street Journal"
"Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise "is The Soul of a New
Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we'd be a lot
better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse
is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate's
influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see
in the numbers--the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the
quantitative questions right. A wonderful read--totally
engrossing."
--Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift
"
"Yogi Berra was right: 'forecasting is hard, especially about the
future.' In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the
performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we
must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares
about what might happen next."
--Richard Thaler, co-author of "Nudge
"
"Making predictions in the era of 'big data' is not what you might
imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides
unpredictably illuminating insights d
"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise...
Lively prose -- from energetic to outraged... illustrates his dos
and don'ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how
predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather
forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics... [the] chapter on
global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses
I've seen... even the noise makes for a good read."
--"New York Times
""Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like
John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy
and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the
Vietnam War...could turn out to be one of the more momentous books
of the decade.""
--New York Times Book Review" Normal 0 false false false
MicrosoftInternetExplorer4 /* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable {mso-style-name: "Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0; mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow: yes; mso-style-parent: ""; mso-padding-alt:0in
5.4pt 0in 5.4pt; mso-para-margin:0in; mso-para-margin-bottom:
.0001pt; mso-pagination: widow-orphan; font-size:10.0pt;
font-family: "Times New Roman"; mso-ansi-language: #0400;
mso-fareast-language: #0400; mso-bidi-language: #0400;}
"Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult
statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and
examples are painstakingly researched..."
--"Wall Street Journal"
"Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics... His ambitious new
book, "The Signal and the Noise," is a practical handbook and a
philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction
through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to
professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely
valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about
the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In
other words, everyone."
--"The Boston Globe
"
a
"Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise "is The Soul of a New
Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we'd be a lot
better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse
is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate's
influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see
in the numbers--the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the
quantitative questions right. A wonderful read--totally
engrossing."
--Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift
"
"Yogi Berra was right: 'forecasting is hard, especially about the
future.' In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the
performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we
must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares
about what might happen next."
--Richard Thaler, co-author of "Nudge
"
"Making predictions in the era of 'big data' is not what you might
imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides
unpredictably illuminating insights differentiating objective and
subjective realities in forecasting our future. He reminds us that
the human element is still essential in predicting advances in
science, technology and even politics... if we were only wise
enough to learn from our mistakes."
--Governor Jon Huntsman
"Here's a prediction: after you read The Signal and the Noise,
you'll have much more insight into why some models work well--and
also why many don't. You'll learn to pay more attention to weather
forecasts for the coming week--and none at all for weather
forecasts beyond that. Nate Silver takes a complex, difficult
subject and makes it fun, interesting, and relevant."
--Peter Orszag, former director of the Office of Management and
Budget
"Projection, prediction, assumption, trepidation, anticipation,
expectation, estimation... we wouldn't have 80 words like this in
the English language if it wasn't central to our lives. We tend not
to take prediction seriouslya
"Nate Silver's "The Signal and the Noise "is The Soul of a New
Machine for the 21st century (a century we thought we'd be a lot
better at predicting than we actually are). Our political discourse
is already better informed and more data-driven because of Nate's
influence. But here he shows us what he has always been able to see
in the numbers--the heart and the ethical imperative of getting the
quantitative questions right. A wonderful read--totally
engrossing."
--Rachel Maddow, author of "Drift
"
"Yogi Berra was right: 'forecasting is hard, especially about the
future.' In this important book, Nate Silver explains why the
performance of experts varies from prescient to useless and why we
must plan for the unexpected. Must reading for anyone who cares
about what might happen next."
--Richard Thaler, co-author of "Nudge
"
"Making predictions in the era of 'big data' is not what you might
imagine. Nate Silver's refreshing and original book provides
unpredictably illuminating insights differentiating objective and
subjective realities in forecasting our future. He reminds us that
the human element is still essential in predicting advances in
science, technology and even politics... if we were only wise
enough to learn from our mistakes."
--Governor Jon Huntsman
"Here's a prediction: after you read The Signal and the Noise,
you'll have much more insight into why some models work well--and
also why many don't. You'll learn to pay more attention to weather
forecasts for the coming week--and none at all for weather
forecasts beyond that. Nate Silver takes a complex, difficult
subject and makes it fun, interesting, and relevant."
--Peter Orszag, former director of the Office of Management and
Budget
"Projection, prediction, assumption, trepidation, anticipation,
expectation, estimation... we wouldn't have 80 words like this in
the English language if it wasn't central to our lives. We tend not
to take prediction serio
"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise...
Lively prose -- from energetic to outraged... illustrates his dos
and don'ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how
predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather
forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics... [the] chapter on
global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses
I've seen... even the noise makes for a good read."
--"New York Times"
"Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like
John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy
and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the
Vietnam War...could turn out to be one of the more momentous books
of the decade."
--"New York Times Book Review"
"Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult
statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and
examples are painstakingly researched..."
--"Wall Street Journal"
"Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics... His ambitious new
book, "The Signal and the Noise," is a practical handbook and a
philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction
through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to
professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely
valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about
the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In
other words, everyone."
--"The Boston Globe"
"Silver delivers an improbably breezy read on what is essentially a
primer on making predictions."
--"Washington Post"
""The Signal and the Noise" is many things -- an introduction to
the Bayesian theory of probability, a meditation on luck and
character, a commentary on poker's insights into life -- but it's
most important function is its most basic and absolutely necessary
one right now: a guide to detecting and avoiding bullshit dressed
up as data...Whatf
One of "Wall Street Journal"'s" "Best Ten Works of Nonfiction in
2012
"Mr. Silver, just 34, is an expert at finding signal in noise...
Lively prose -- from energetic to outraged... illustrates his dos
and don'ts through a series of interesting essays that examine how
predictions are made in fields including chess, baseball, weather
forecasting, earthquake analysis and politics... [the] chapter on
global warming is one of the most objective and honest analyses
I've seen... even the noise makes for a good read."
--"New York Times"
"Not so different in spirit from the way public intellectuals like
John Kenneth Galbraith once shaped discussions of economic policy
and public figures like Walter Cronkite helped sway opinion on the
Vietnam War...could turn out to be one of the more momentous books
of the decade."
--"New York Times Book Review"
"A serious treatise about the craft of prediction--without academic
mathematics--cheerily aimed at lay readers. Silver's coverage is
polymathic, ranging from poker and earthquakes to climate change
and terrorism."
"--New York Review of Books"
"Mr. Silver's breezy style makes even the most difficult
statistical material accessible. What is more, his arguments and
examples are painstakingly researched..."
--"Wall Street Journal"
"Nate Silver is the Kurt Cobain of statistics... His ambitious new
book, "The Signal and the Noise," is a practical handbook and a
philosophical manifesto in one, following the theme of prediction
through a series of case studies ranging from hurricane tracking to
professional poker to counterterrorism. It will be a supremely
valuable resource for anyone who wants to make good guesses about
the future, or who wants to assess the guesses made by others. In
other words, everyone."
--"The Boston Globe"
"Silver delivers an improbably breezy read on what is essentially a
primer on making predictions."
--"Washington Post"
""The Signal and
 |
Ask a Question About this Product More... |
|
