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Mastering Tennis Trading


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Table of Contents

Foreward Introduction To Tennis Trading - Part One: Setup - Part Two: Some Basic Information and Market Thoughts Hedging Pre-Match Trading Introduction To Projected Service Holds Using Projected Hold Percentages To Infer Value In-Play Prematch Lay To In-Play Back Backing The Favourite When Losing Laying Bad Servers The Vesnina Trade Pressure Situations 1 - Serving For The Set Pressure Situations 2 - Serving To Stay In The Set Backing The Server Tiebreak Trading In-Game Trades 1 - Backing The Good Server In-Game Trades 2 - Opposing The Bad Server In-Game Trades 3 - Break Points At The End Of The First Set Singles Players That Also Play Doubles The Deciding Set Dangerous Situations Dealing With Losing Positions Psychology, Risk, And Bankroll Management Resources Appendix: Break Back Percentages Based On Time Decay And Break Back Stats

About the Author

As an analyst and trader specialising in tennis, Dan has five years' experience of statistical analysis, researching and writing about tennis pre-match and in-play betting markets. Drawing on his degree in Accounting & Finance (BA), he has created a pre-match pricing model and writes match and tournament previews and betting articles for his website,


"This is the first book I have seen that takes a fairly stat-heavy approach to trading in-game tennis. It explains in detail the single most important concept in tennis betting -- relative hold and break percentages, which are used both pre-game and in-play for pricing. The author spends a great deal of time analyzing situations in-play that may have market inefficiencies. For example, how does a player do when facing a break-point at 0-40, compared to 0-30? Or how does a player's play change when up or down a set? It also gives a lot of practical tips on the execution of trading. This book gets a lot of things right. If you read, understand and apply the contents of this book, you are likely to win (and at least not lose) betting in-play tennis.;I have one criticism of the author's analysis. In many examples where stats are provided, the analysis is not robust. He does not consider how two samples he is comparing should be different in a vacuum. For example, the author defines a group of women's servers as "bad", and the group holds serve 56.6% of the time. When a bad server is serving to stay in a set (e.g., down 4-5) the serve hold rate drops to 54.9%. The author concludes that laying a bad server in such a situation may be advantageous. A better analysis would have estimated the bad server hold rate in that situation (given the player is down a game, that player on average is slightly worse than the opponent, and would be expected to have a slightly lower service hold rate for all games in the match, and not just that particular situation). This omission of conditional groups occurs throughout the entire book.;Despite my criticism of one methodological problem, this is well written and no other book out there comes close to covering this topic as well as this book. For those reasons, I gave it 5 stars. ";- Elihu Feustel, Gambling Consultant and Professional Gambler

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