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The Investor's Manifesto


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Table of Contents

Foreword ix Preface xiii Chapter 1 A Brief History of Financial Time 1 In the Beginning 2 Near-Death in Venice 8 The Incredible Shrinking Risk Premium 11 Summary 12 Chapter 2 The Nature of the Beast 13 Of Ravens and Returns 13 History versus Math 18 Mr. Gordon?s Curious Equation 25 Math Detail: The Discounted Dividend Model 29 Home Sweet Home? 35 Adventures in Equity 38 Math Detail: Risk 43 Throwing Dice with God 47 Gene Fama Looks for Angles and Finds None 49 Sandbagged by a Superstar 52 Jack Bogle Outfoxes the Suits 56 It Is Better to Be Lucky Than Smart 63 Bond Funds: A Flatter Playing Field 64 Summary 65 Chapter 3 The Nature of the Portfolio 69 Four Essential Preliminaries 71 The Asset Allocation Two-Step 74 Math Detail: Mean-Variance Analysis 83 With Luck, Zigs, and Zags 84 Chasing Rainbows 88 Summary 93 Chapter 4 The Enemy in the Mirror 95 Inner Demons 97 Behaving Badly 100 Bargain-Basement Psychotherapy 116 Summary 125 Chapter 5 Muggers and Worse 127 The World's Largest Bad Neighborhood 128 The Fund Funhouse 135 Summary 142 Chapter 6 Building Your Portfolio 143 Financial Planning for a Lifetime: The Basics 143 Saving for Retirement: Nuts and Bolts 145 How to Save: Dollar Cost Averaging and Value Averaging 152 Four Investors, Four Plans 154 The Rebalancing Question 166 Math Detail: Rebalancing, Momentum, and Mean Reversion 169 Teach Your Children Well 172 Summary 174 Chapter 7 The Name of the Game 179 Investment Theory and History: The Short Course 180 The Portfolio Theory of Everything 181 We Have Met the Enemy, and He Is Us 181 Heads I Win, Tails You Lose 182 Fire When Ready 182 The Books You Need . . . Aged Like Fine Wine 185 Notes 188 Acknowledgments 193 About the Author 195 Index 196

About the Author

William J. Bernstein , PhD, MD, is a bestselling author known as a grassroots hero to independent investors. Formerly a practicing neurologist, Bernstein approaches the problems of saving and investing as someone who had to figure it out for himself--from first principles up. He is the author of The Intelligent Asset Allocator and The Four Pillars of Investing --highly regarded, plain-spoken guides on how to build a diversified portfolio without the help of a financial advisor--the editor of the asset allocation journal Efficient Frontier , and the founder of the popular website He has also written two volumes of economic history, The Birth of Plenty and A Splendid Exchange , and is a coprincipal in Efficient Frontier Advisors.

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