Data Mining and Business Analytics with R

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Preface ix Acknowledgments xi 1. Introduction 1 Reference 6 2. Processing the Information and Getting to Know Your Data 7 2.1 Example 1: 2006 Birth Data 7 2.2 Example 2: Alumni Donations 17 2.3 Example 3: Orange Juice 31 References 39 3. Standard Linear Regression 40 3.1 Estimation in R 43 3.2 Example 1: Fuel Efficiency of Automobiles 43 3.3 Example 2: Toyota Used-Car Prices 47 Appendix 3.A The Effects of Model Overfitting on the Average Mean Square Error of the Regression Prediction 53 References 54 4. Local Polynomial Regression: a Nonparametric Regression Approach 55 4.1 Model Selection 56 4.2 Application to Density Estimation and the Smoothing of Histograms 58 4.3 Extension to the Multiple Regression Model 58 4.4 Examples and Software 58 References 65 5. Importance of Parsimony in Statistical Modeling 67 5.1 How Do We Guard Against False Discovery 67 References 70 6. Penalty-Based Variable Selection in Regression Models with Many Parameters (LASSO) 71 6.1 Example 1: Prostate Cancer 74 6.2 Example 2: Orange Juice 78 References 82 7. Logistic Regression 83 7.1 Building a Linear Model for Binary Response Data 83 7.2 Interpretation of the Regression Coefficients in a Logistic Regression Model 85 7.3 Statistical Inference 85 7.4 Classification of New Cases 86 7.5 Estimation in R 87 7.6 Example 1: Death Penalty Data 87 7.7 Example 2: Delayed Airplanes 92 7.8 Example 3: Loan Acceptance 100 7.9 Example 4: German Credit Data 103 References 107 8. Binary Classification, Probabilities, and Evaluating Classification Performance 108 8.1 Binary Classification 108 8.2 Using Probabilities to Make Decisions 108 8.3 Sensitivity and Specificity 109 8.4 Example: German Credit Data 109 9. Classification Using a Nearest Neighbor Analysis 115 9.1 The k-Nearest Neighbor Algorithm 116 9.2 Example 1: Forensic Glass 117 9.3 Example 2: German Credit Data 122 Reference 125 10. The Nayve Bayesian Analysis: a Model for Predicting a Categorical Response from Mostly Categorical Predictor Variables 126 10.1 Example: Delayed Airplanes 127 Reference 131 11. Multinomial Logistic Regression 132 11.1 Computer Software 134 11.2 Example 1: Forensic Glass 134 11.3 Example 2: Forensic Glass Revisited 141 Appendix 11.A Specification of a Simple Triplet Matrix 147 References 149 12. More on Classification and a Discussion on Discriminant Analysis 150 12.1 Fisher?s Linear Discriminant Function 153 12.2 Example 1: German Credit Data 154 12.3 Example 2: Fisher Iris Data 156 12.4 Example 3: Forensic Glass Data 157 12.5 Example 4: MBA Admission Data 159 Reference 160 13. Decision Trees 161 13.1 Example 1: Prostate Cancer 167 13.2 Example 2: Motorcycle Acceleration 179 13.3 Example 3: Fisher Iris Data Revisited 182 14. Further Discussion on Regression and Classification Trees, Computer Software, and Other Useful Classification Methods 185 14.1 R Packages for Tree Construction 185 14.2 Chi-Square Automatic Interaction Detection (CHAID) 186 14.3 Ensemble Methods: Bagging, Boosting, and Random Forests 188 14.4 Support Vector Machines (SVM) 192 14.5 Neural Networks 192 14.6 The R Package Rattle: A Useful Graphical User Interface for Data Mining 193 References 195 15. Clustering 196 15.1 k-Means Clustering 196 15.2 Another Way to Look at Clustering: Applying the Expectation-Maximization (EM) Algorithm to Mixtures of Normal Distributions 204 15.3 Hierarchical Clustering Procedures 212 References 219 16. Market Basket Analysis: Association Rules and Lift 220 16.1 Example 1: Online Radio 222 16.2 Example 2: Predicting Income 227 References 234 17. Dimension Reduction: Factor Models and Principal Components 235 17.1 Example 1: European Protein Consumption 238 17.2 Example 2: Monthly US Unemployment Rates 243 18. Reducing the Dimension in Regressions with Multicollinear Inputs: Principal Components Regression and Partial Least Squares 247 18.1 Three Examples 249 References 257 19. Text as Data: Text Mining and Sentiment Analysis 258 19.1 Inverse Multinomial Logistic Regression 259 19.2 Example 1: Restaurant Reviews 261 19.3 Example 2: Political Sentiment 266 Appendix 19.A Relationship Between the Gentzkow Shapiro Estimate of ?Slant? and Partial Least Squares 268 References 271 20. Network Data 272 20.1 Example 1: Marriage and Power in Fifteenth Century Florence 274 20.2 Example 2: Connections in a Friendship Network 278 References 292 Appendix A: Exercises 293 Exercise 1 294 Exercise 2 294 Exercise 3 296 Exercise 4 298 Exercise 5 299 Exercise 6 300 Exercise 7 301 Appendix B: References 338 Index 341

JOHANNES LEDOLTER, PhD, is Professor in both the Department of Management Sciences and the Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science at the University of Iowa. He is a Fellow of the American Statistical Association and the American Society for Quality, and an Elected Member of the International Statistical Institute. Dr. Ledolter is the coauthor of Statistical Methods for Forecasting, Achieving Quality Through Continual Improvement, and Statistical Quality Control: Strategies and Tools for Continual Improvement, all published by Wiley.

I first taught a Ph.D. level course in businessapplications of data mining 10 years ago. I regularly searchthe web, looking for business-oriented data mining books, and thisis the first one I have found that is suitable for an MS inbusiness analytics. I plan to use it. Anyone whoteaches such a class and is inclined toward R should consider thistext. (Journal of the American StatisticalAssociation, 1 January 2014)

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