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Table of Contents

Chapter 1: "One short nap took me all the way back to before 1949". 1978-2008: 30 years of Opening. 1992-2005: 13 years of Reform. 2005: the end of Reform. China is a family business. Chapter 2: China's fortress banking system. Banks are China's financial system. Crisis and bank reform, 1994 and 1998. China's fortress banking system in 2009. The sudden thirst for capital and cash dividends, 2010. Chapter 3: The fragile fortress. The foundation of China's banking machine. Bad bank performance and its implications, 2009. The "perpetual put" option to PBOC. China's new post-Lehman Brothers banking model. Implications. Chapter 4: China's captive bond market. Why does China have a bond market? Yield curves in China. The base of the Pyramid: "protecting" household depositors. Chapter 5: The struggle over China's bond markets. China Development Bank, the Ministry of Finance and the Big 4 Banks. People's Bank of China, NDRC and CSRC: corporate bonds. Local governments unleashed. China Investment Corporation: the lynchpin of China's financial system. Cycles in China's financial markets. Chapter 6: Western finance, SOE reform and China's stock markets. Why does China have stock markets? What the stock markets gave China. Chapter 7: The National Team is China's government. The National Team, the Organization Department, Huijin and SASAC. Chinese stock markets: Who benefits? A casino or a success or both? Implications. Chapter 8: The Forbidden City. The Emperor of Finance. Behind the vermillion walls. Red capitalism means leverage. The Emperor's new financial playthings. Appendices.

About the Author

Carl E. Walter has worked in China's financial sector for the past twenty years and has actively participated in many of its financial reforms. He played a major role in China's groundbreaking first overseas IPO in 1992 as well as the first listing of a state-owned enterprise on the New York Stock Exchange in 1994. He held a senior position in China's first and most successful joint venture investment bank where he supported a number of significant domestic stock and debt underwritings for major Chinese corporations and financial institutions. More recently, he helped build one of the most successful and profitable domestic security, risk, and currency trading operations for a major international investment bank. Fluent in Mandarin, he holds a PhD from Stanford University and a graduate certificate from Beijing University. Carl is a longtime resident of Beijing. Fraser J. T. Howie has been trading, analyzing, and writing about Asian stock markets for nearly twenty years. During that time, he has worked in Hong Kong, trading equity derivatives at Bankers Trust and Morgan Stanley. After moving to China in 1998, he worked in the sales and trading department of China International Capital Corporation followed by a stint with China M&A Management Company. He is a regular commentator on China and its financial system, having spoken in Hong Kong, Tokyo, Beijing, Shanghai, Singapore, and Cambridge. He is currently a managing director at a leading Asia-Pacific brokerage firm in Singapore helping international investors invest in both the Indian and Chinese markets.


'Anyone who is overly impressed with the apparent resilience of China today would do well to read [this] book' (The Economist, December 2010). ' impressive wealth of analytical detail and political nous'. (FT, January 2011). 'An eye-opening look at how Communist Party bosses control China's economy.' (, June 2011).

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