Building on insights gleaned from many years of work in the banking industry and drawing on a vast trove of data, Richard Vague argues in A Brief History of Doom that financial crises follow a pattern that makes them both predictable and avoidable.
Philanthropist and former banker Richard Vague is a managing partner of Gabriel Investments, Chairman of The Governor's Woods Foundation, and author of The Next Economic Disaster: Why It's Coming and How to Avoid It, also available from the University of Pennsylvania Press.
"Just when U.S. regulators and lenders are showing signs of
forgetting the lessons of the 2008 financial crisis, Richard Vague
comes out with this timely treatise on the dangers of excessive
private debt. Deeply researched yet easily understandable, it's
must-reading for anyone who wants to understand the financial
crises of the past-and anticipate the catastrophes of the
future."
*Rich Miller, Bloomberg News*
"Richard Vague unmasks a very important insight that financial
crises throughout history have originated in bubble formation in
the private sector. This diagnosis presents a huge challenge to the
political system regarding how to implement the preventative
medicine to impede bubbles. The stakes are high for preventing
prolonged economic downturns, and the impotence of the public
sector is devastating to the reputation of experts and governance,
not only in the financial sector but across every division of
government. The demoralization on both the left and right after the
Great Financial Crisis remains a major contributor to the politics
of today. Vague challenges us to face up to these costs."
*Robert Johnson, Institute for New Economic Thinking*
"Debt is always the biggest indicator of where financial crises
will strike next. But while most people focus on government debt,
private debt has been overlooked as a risk factor. Richard Vague
rectifies that problem-and given that corporate debt is now at
record highs-there couldn't be a better time to read his book."
*Rana Foroohar, Financial Times*
"Debt booms are the Achilles heel of modern economies, and nobody
understands this better than Richard Vague. It takes a former
banker to expose the folly of lenders in fueling credit booms that
lead to devastating financial crises. In his sweeping account of
200 years of financial history, Vague builds on his intimate
understanding of banking to explain how private debt booms put
economic and social prosperity at risk. This is a must read for
anyone who wants to see the next crisis coming."
*Moritz Schularick, University of Bonn*
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