In this look at financial luck, hedge fund manager Taleb (Dynamic Hedging) addresses the apparently irrational movement of money markets around the world. Using his own investing experience and examples of others' successes and disappointments, he discusses theories like Monte Carlo math (easy; considered cheating by purists) and the concept of Russian roulette. Taleb tells interesting, well-wrought stories about individual behavior: "While Nero has succeeded beyond his wildest dreams, both personally and intellectually, he is starting to consider himself as having missed a chance somewhere." While serious investors and mathematics enthusiasts will be intrigued, readers looking for practical investment strategies will be disappointed by this rambling intellectual discourse. Tables. 40,000-copy first printing; $150,000 marketing budget. (Oct. 30) Copyright 2001 Cahners Business Information.
& quot; [Taleb is] Wall Street ' s principal dissident. . . . [Fooled By Randomness] is to conventional Wall Street wisdom approximately what Martin Luther ' s ninety-nine theses were to the Catholic Church. " - Malcolm Gladwell, The New Yorker
" Fascinating . . . Taleb will grab you. " - Peter L. Bernstein, author of Against the Gods: The Remarkable Story of Risk " Recalls the best of scientist/essayists like Richard Dawkins . . . and Stephen Jay Gould. " - Michael Schrage, author of Serious Play " We need a book like this . . . fun to read, refreshingly independent-minded. " - Robert J. Shille r, author of Irrational Exuberance
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Reviews
5.0
out of 5 based on
2
reviews.
– Customer review on 20/09/2008
Fooled by Randomness is based on a basic truth about humans: we are not very good at statistics, especially if we simply rely on our instincts. For example, we fear airplanes, sharks and terrorists, yet we rarely think about mundane risks like cancer and car accidents. Similarly, we are not good at judging investments. We think that the broker who picked three winners in a row must know something; not necessarily so, says Taleb.
This book is well worth reading, especially if you ever invest in individual stocks or managed stock funds (it will probably talk you out of doing so). It certainly is not an investment guide, however, so do not buy it if you are looking for a hot stock tip.
Taleb has a quirky writing style. This certaintly is not a "pretty" book. Nevertheless, it is easy enough to read.
Taleb, a stock trader himself, does to seem to hold most other traders in high regard.
5.0
out of 5 based on
2
reviews.
– Customer review on 06/04/2007
Taleb is very clever in his exposure of the many biases in our interpretation of information. A simple concept - randomness is applied to lots of good examples and includes good information about survivorship bias etc. A good read, particularly for students of finance and mathematics.
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