The currency exchange rate market is the most active market in the world and, with the dollar taking a beating on the foreign exchange, this market has become more important than ever. The world has changed in the last five years with increased global trade and interaction redefining how business gets done. Getting the exchange rate right is critical for any company doing business in today's global economy. Foreign exchange rates can play a key role in profit/loss, affect decisions on major projects, and determine the best course for a marketing plan. But getting exchange rates right is far from easy, and currency forecasts can go awry for a variety of reasons. Many models and strategies are available to forecast exchange rates, and each has it appropriate use and place. Exchange Rate Determination is the definitive guidebook to the wide variety of approaches to forecasting foreign exchange rates, summarizing each in an easy-to-read format. The author has created a user-friendly format: The written text and mathematical formulas are kept to a minimum, while the charts and tables are allowed to tell the story. This practitioner's guide combines theory and application in a workbook-like setting that allows readers to really get their hands around the various models and when they should be used. The book is exhaustive in its coverage of the models and strategies, discussing the major concepts facing those working on foreign exchange issues. Exchange Rate Determination covers strategies and models cover short, long, and medium run time frames, and the book's divisions reflect this. Part I investigates the potential risks and rewards of using a variety of short-run forecasting tools in formulating foreign exchange strategies. Part II explores the fundamental forces that give rise to long-term cycles in exchange rates. Part III investigates a wide range of cyclical forces that have caused currencies to rise or fall relative to their long-term trend. The author also includes a Part IV, which identifies the economic and financial variables that correctly predict currency crises in emerging markets (a major market for most industrial and financial corporations). Topics covered include: - Using technical analysis for currency forecasting - Currency option markets - Long-term cycles in exchange rates - Productivity trends and exchange rates - Central bank intervention The book is based on a book produced by the Deutsche Bank that the bank gives out to clients, not for sale.

About the Author

Michael R. Rosenberg is managing director and head of global foreign exchange research at Deutsche Bank. His articles regularly appear in Institutional Investor, Global Investor,and other top financial publications.